Only some of the well-intentioned projects that aim to restore former high abundances of AYK salmon stocks will succeed. Such projects are vulnerable to unexpected outcomes, as are all management actions. Restoration projects should therefore be designed so that their effectiveness can be evaluated easily at some future date. This requires that the projects utilize principles of experimental design. The work proposed here will review literature on experimental designs in applied ecology and develop a framework that applies those concepts to restoration projects for salmon in the AYK region. Using the resulting framework of experimental design, proponents of projects can then design better restoration activities and the AYK Scientific and Technical Committee can evaluate proposed restoration projects based on the ability to clearly determine the projects' effectiveness. The main benefit the proposed research is a more efficient use of AYK SSI funds to focus on the most effective restoration methods
The objective of the research proposed here is to compile a detailed overview of the principles of experimental design that are directly relevant to restoration efforts in the AYK region. To my knowledge, this has not been done before. These principles will be combined into a framework that can be used by the AYK SSI to evaluate how well the effectiveness of particular proposed restoration activities can be determined. Good designs (which include not only effective design during manipulations but also appropriate follow-up monitoring) will provide high-quality information to scientists and managers (Eberhardt and Thomas 1991). This will improve future investment decisions by avoiding potentially large costs of continuing to fund restoration methods that do not work well, and focusing on those methods that lead to increases in abundance and/or catch of adult salmon (MacGregor et al. 2002). Furthermore, if a restoration method works well in one place, proper experimental design (e.g. randomization of treatments and controls) will increase scientists' and managers' confidence in extrapolating results from that location to expectations for that method in another place (Schwarz 1998).
Although these ideas may seem obvious and well understood to some people, inadequate consideration of experimental design in multi-decade-long, multi-million-dollar enhancement programs for salmonids has, in some cases, led to inconclusive evaluations of their effectiveness (e.g. see Hilborn and Winton 1993 for a review of the Canadian Salmonid Enhancement Program). The same lack of conclusive evidence applies to fisheries management in general; inadequately designed management actions have all too often led to being unable to distinguish between alternative hypotheses about causes of observed changes, often with large management implications (Walters 1986; Walters et al. 1988; McAllister and Peterman 1992a). A related issue is whether it is worthwhile monitoring some pilot restoration project at all. Instead, the best action might be for managers to invest in some project immediately based on existing data, without gathering additional information (MacGregor et al. 2002). The problem is that increasing the number of replicates (or duration of monitoring programs) and using more precise sampling methods increases costs of monitoring, but the benefit is increased precision with which effects of restoration can be estimated. A review of the many lessons from past experience elsewhere will provide useful insights into ways that AYK SSI restoration activities could be designed, given this challenge of potentially large monitoring costs.
Unfortunately, it is rarely possible to achieve an ideal experimental design in a given situation. Compromises must be made due to logistical constraints of time, budget, availability of independent replicate or control areas, and other factors. However, such compromises will increase the chances of confounded interpretation of results or decreased power to detect specified effects of restoration activities, if they are present. Thus, another objective of the literature review proposed here is to identify qualitatively the extent to which the value the information may be reduced if the ideal experimental design is not achieved due to various constraints.
Randall Peterman
peterman@sfu.ca
Simon Fraser University
604-291-4683
Simon Fraser University
Burnaby
BC
V5a 1S6
A Final Report is available for this project: Click to view
A Project Authorization Statement is available for this project: Click to view
The following Semi Annual Progress Reports are available
January 2005
First Year Funding: $12,690.00
Second Year Funding:
Third Year Funding:
Fourth Year Funding:
Fields of Expertise |
| Biological Science |
| Experimental/Project Design - 1 Other Projects |
| Physical Science |
| Socio/Economic |
Professional Activity |
| Research program administration - 2 Other Projects |
Ecosystems |
Ecosystem Components |
Geographic Regions |
Technological Expertise/Lab Methods |
| Lab Methods |
| Technology |
Modeling |
| Method |
| Type |
Physical Science Specialties Areas |
Management/Policy/Social |