We propose to reconstruct Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon runs from 1975 though 2007, as a tool to understanding factors affecting salmon production. We will first estimate the number of adult Chinook in the entire Kuskokwim River in 2006 and 2007 by continuing a radio telemetry mark-recapture study that provides estimates of abundance in the middle and upper Kuskokwim River, concurrent with measures to estimate abundance for the Aniak River and lower Kuskokwim tributaries. We will then extend our abundance time series back to 2002 by expanding the 2002 through 2005 radio telemetry estimates to include the entire Kuskokwim River. We will next extend the times series back to 1975 by analyzing escapement data from 1975 through 2007 to create a drainage-wide index of annual escapement, and apply the abundance estimates from 2002 through 2007 as a scalar to estimate annual abundance for each of the indexed years. Finally we will apply historical age composition data to the annual estimates to investigate potential spawner-recruitment relationships as an initial approach to understanding mechanisms that drive variations in abundance. Our proposal is time sensitive in that it builds on numerous existing platforms. Furthermore, it incorporates a unique partnership of a state agency, Tribal organizations, and a consulting statistician with University review and consultation, together with capacity building and outreach components.
Our overall goal is to conduct a retrospective analysis of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon for estimating the annual spawning population (escapement) from 1975 through 2007, combine these estimates with harvest and age composition data to develop parental and recruit estimates (brood year returns), and then investigate stock recruitment relationships. Specific objectives are to: Estimate adult Chinook salmon abundance in the Kuskokwim River upstream of Kalskag in 2006 and 2007 such that the estimate is within ±25% of the actual value 95% of the time; Estimate adult Chinook salmon abundance in the Aniak River sub-basin in 2006 and 2007 such that the estimate is within ±30% of the actual value 90% of the time; Determine the relative contribution of the Aniak River Chinook salmon escapement to the total escapement above Kalskag in 2006 and 2007 as a means for expanding the abundance estimates of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon from 2002 through 2005; Estimate spawning and total abundance of Chinook salmon in the Kuskokiwm River from 1975 through 2007 using a statistical model for combining multiple data sources; Describe the spawner-recruit relationship of Kuskokwim River Chinook salmon for the period 1975 through 2007 to assess the influence of parental escapement abundance on variations in return. Our proposal seeks funding for three years in coordination with other sources. We request funding for Objective 1 in 2007, Objectives 2 and 3 for 2006 and 2007, and Objectives 4 and 5 for completion in 2008.
Doug Molyneaux
doug.molyneaux@alaska.gov
Alaska Dept of Fish and Game - Division of Commercial Fisheries
907-267-2397
333 Raspberry Rd
Anchorage
AK
99518
A Final Report is available for this project: Click to view First Year Funding: $596,701.00
A Project Authorization Statement is available for this project: Click to view
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Keyword Tree for Project
Fields of Expertise
Biological Science
Population Biology - 26 Other Projects
Physical Science
Socio/Economic
Professional Activity
Field research and Data Collection - 37 Other Projects
Ecosystems
Freshwater – Rivers/Streams - 45 Other Projects
Ecosystem Components
Fish - 51 Other Projects
Species Groups
Anadromous salmonids - 51 Other Projects
Chinook - 22 Other Projects
Specific research issues
Stock assessment methods - 7 Other Projects
Tracking and tagging technologies - 5 Other Projects
Geographic Regions
Kuskokwim River Watershed - 22 Other Projects
Technological Expertise/Lab Methods
Lab Methods
Technology
Modeling
Method
Type
Physical Science Specialties Areas
Management/Policy/Social