This project will follow through on one of the recommendations of the 2001 Mundy Committee report: that the statistical analyses used for arriving at BEGs be subjected to a formal uncertainty analysis, to quantify the possible magnitude of the error and to explore possible consequences of that error for the ecosystem and long term harvest potential. The statistical analysis will be carried out on the ADFG stock recruit data for the Kwiniuk, Andreafsky, Norton Sound District One, Yukon Fall, and Anvik runs. The uncertainty will be analyzed with respect to the form of the stock recruitment curve and temporal changes in productivity (regime). Further factors to be considered will be counting error and feedback of marine derived nutrients on productivity.
The project objectives are (1) to obtain new estimates, with quantified statistical confidence distributions, for the stock recruitment parameters for a subset of the Western Alaska chum stocks that have longer data records, and (2) to model the consequences of these uncertainties in a management system that bases escapement goals on the estimates of the MSY level, and (3) to illustrate the performance of alternative management systems that take account of the uncertainties.
Daniel Goodman
Goodman@rapid.msu.montana.edu
Montana State University
406-994-3231
Montana State University
503 W. Cleveland St
Bozeman
MT
59715
A Final Report is available for this project: Click to view
A Project Authorization Statement is available for this project: Click to view
The following Semi Annual Progress Reports are available
January 2004
July 2004
First Year Funding: $35,000.00
Second Year Funding:
Third Year Funding:
Fourth Year Funding:
Fields of Expertise |
| Biological Science |
| Physical Science |
| Socio/Economic |
Professional Activity |
| Data Synthesis/Visualization - 12 Other Projects |
Ecosystems |
| Freshwater – Rivers/Streams - 45 Other Projects |
Ecosystem Components |
| Fish - 51 Other Projects |
| Species Groups |
| Anadromous salmonids - 51 Other Projects |
| Chum - 24 Other Projects |
| Specific research issues |
| Population dynamics - 14 Other Projects |
| Stock assessment methods - 7 Other Projects |
Geographic Regions |
| Norton Sound - 18 Other Projects |
| Seward Peninsula Streams - 12 Other Projects |
| Yukon River Watershed - 21 Other Projects |
Technological Expertise/Lab Methods |
| Lab Methods |
| Technology |
Modeling |
| Method |
| Inference (i.e. function fitting, Bayesian) - 6 Other Projects |
| Type |
| Population - 10 Other Projects |
| Stock Assessment - 4 Other Projects |
Physical Science Specialties Areas |
Management/Policy/Social |
| Commercial fisheries - 18 Other Projects |