The Research and Restoration Plan was prepared by the AYK SSI Scientific Technical Committee, with guidance from a committee of the National Research Council, for the SC. The Final RRP was approved by the AYK SSI Steering Committee in June 2006 and is available for download from our website at www.aykssi.org. Those wishing to submit proposals are encouraged to read the RRP to learn more about the Initiative and its goals.
The RRP is organized around a conceptual foundation, several overarching questions and three research frameworks: 1) Salmon Life Cycle; 2) Human Systems; 3) Synthesis and Prediction. Within each framework, research themes, hypotheses, key variables, and sample research questions are identified. A total of twenty-two hypotheses were developed to address the Program Goal, eleven of which were classified as high priority hypotheses directly addressing the program goal of "..understanding the trends and causes of variation in salmon abundance and fisheries..." In an effort to address critically needed research within the temporal and fiscal constraints of the Initiative, the AYK SSI Steering Committee selected five of the high-priority hypotheses for inclusion in this Request for Proposals (see table below).
Please Note: Hypotheses presented here reflect statements about how processes may cause salmon abundance to vary. Hypotheses they are not to be interpreted as statements of fact nor as statements of belief of the SSI Program, but are propositions about how the salmon system may work - they may be true or they may be false! The hypotheses are posed as positive statements designed for studies to either prove or disprove. It may be helpful for the reader to insert before each statement, "To determine whether...". The example questions are not intended to be the only questions of importance. The questions may serve to stimulate researchers to craft their own hypotheses and questions as they develop research proposals.
| Research Framework(Within AYK SSI Research Plan) | High Priority Hypotheses | Example Questions |
|---|---|---|
| Salmon Life Cycle Framework | Marine survival of salmon is more affected by variability in ocean temperature and environmental variables than by variability in marine fishing mortality. |
What is the relative importance of marine mortality, relative to mortality at other life stages, in establishing abundance of returning adult salmon to spawning streams? What are the sources and extent of fishing mortality (bycatch, interception fisheries, and targeted commercial fisheries) on different AYK stocks? Do density-dependent interactions within and among salmon species affect marine survival, growth, and returning adult abundance? How do salmon migration routes vary among populations from year to year, and what effect do oceanic distributions have on survival, growth, and returning adult abundance? |
| Salmon Life Cycle Framework | Spawning escapement and subsequent egg deposition are important determinants of the abundance of the next generation of salmon. |
What is the relationship between adult-run size abundance and subsequent spawning-run abundances? What is the relative contribution of different stocks within a watershed to the entire adult salmon run, and what are the current and anticipated effects of subsistence, commercial, and sport catch on salmon stock structure? What are the effects of fishing, disease (e.g., Ichthyophonus) and predation on survival of salmon from freshwater entry to spawning? |
| Salmon Life Cycle Framework | Selective fishing over time has altered the size, sex ratio, and life-history type composition of salmon populations. |
Do fisheries exert differential fishing mortality among stocks within a drainage system or provide a selection pressure against certain phenotypic traits? Has LTK recorded long-term changes in the maximum size and sex ratios of salmon? |
| Salmon Life Cycle Framework | Adult salmon abundance in streams shows regular periodic changes and has varied widely over the past two centuries. |
How do abundance and distribution of salmon populations vary over long-time scales (20-200 years)? |
| Human Systems | In the AYK region, human populations will increase over the next fifty years, but alternative affordable food resources will become more available, causing fishing and harvest of salmon to remain the same or to decline. |
What are the interactions between socio-economic variables and catch of salmon in the AYK region? Addressing this theme requires the integration of LTK with traditional socio-economic research. Will predicted human demand for salmon exceed the predicted sustainable yield of AYK salmon populations over the next several decades? |
| Human Systems | The cumulative effects of habitat loss by mining activities can be severe at local levels but not at regional scales, except in the Norton Sound region. |
What are the individual and cumulative effects on salmon from human activities such as mining, boat traffic, and point and non-point sources of freshwater and marine pollution? Are traditional scientific assessments of human impacts consistent with LTK? |
| Synthesis and Prediction Framework | Models that predict historic variability will forecast future salmon abundance. |
Has the historic variation in salmon abundance been due to the ecosystem shifting among multiple stable states? Is there evidence of the loss of any AYK salmon stocks? |
| Synthesis and Prediction Framework | Escapement goal setting to ensure sustainable fisheries can best be accomplished by using stock-recruitment models in combination with life-history and habitat-based modeling. |
What methods exist for determining escapement goals (e.g., habitat-based, ecological, spawner-recruit models), and which ones or combinations are best to use in different drainage systems? |
| Synthesis and Prediction Framework | Stock diversity and salmon stock abundance can be sustained by regulation of fishing gear and fishing times using an escapement goal management approach. |
What management regimes and methods are available to affect salmon catch and stock structure? |
| Synthesis and Prediction Framework | A combination of demographic and ecosystem variables affects the variability of salmon returns in the AYK region. |
What combination of demographic and ecosystem variables, operating on any or all of the life history stages, best predicts salmon abundance by stock? |
| Synthesis and Prediction Framework | Future salmon abundance will support expected harvest demand and provide sufficient spawning salmon to maintain self-sustaining salmon returns in the AYK region. |
Will future salmon abundance support future harvests and bycatch, including subsistence, commercial, and sport fisheries? Are the predictions the same for all species in all regions? What possible management strategies could be used to allocate fishery resources in times of scarcity and conserve salmon populations? |
In an effort to further focus the 2008 priorities, the AYK SSI Steering Committee has identified below a list of special concerns that we encourage proposers to target within the context of an associated high priority hypothesis(es). As such, these questions are presented to aid researchers in targeting research to address both the priority research needs identified in the AYK SSI Research and Restoration Plan while focusing on this set of concerns identified by Committee Members. By focusing on the concerns listed below, researchers have the opportunity to develop new collaborative and cooperative projects with regional organizations and agencies. Except for two of the questions, these concerns emphasize addressing research gaps in the freshwater environment. Proposals that address these topics of special concern will be held to the same scientific review standards as other proposals.
Is the distribution of salmon enumeration and assessment projects adequate for describing the abundance of all species of salmon and if not, where do gaps occur? What additional spawning ground assessments or age- sex- length data are needed?
Are there adequate indicator stocks for understanding and predicting fish abundance, and evaluating and setting escapement goals?
What are the population structures of salmon species within drainages? What genetic stock identification analysis needs to be undertaken to address this?
What is the distribution, abundance, productivity, and stock structure of coho salmon in the Kuskokwim watershed?
What are causes of the recent declines of Chinook salmon from eastern Norton Sound watersheds?